Ahem.
Look, I’m not necessarily one to, er, tweet my own horn, but I have to call attention to two tweets (Xes?) I made regarding the Mariners over the off-season that seem to be manifesting as at least vaguely prophetic.
And no, I don’t mean my prediction before Thursday’s game that we would get to Garrett Crochet, though you can include that too if you want!
Make no mistake, Garrett Crochet is good at pitching. That said, he has only two starts in Fenway this year and one of them was his only loss, surrendering 4 runs in 5 2/3 to Toronto. The other was against the White Sox, who are 5-19 (1-11 on the road). Let’s Go M’s! #TridentsUp
— Storey Clayton (@StoreyClayton) April 24, 2025
We put up [checks notes] 4 ER in 5 innings en route to a gritty 4-3 win at Fenway to take the series.
No, these are the tweets I really want to highlight:
The @Mariners went 21-13 (.618) with Dan Wilson at the helm. They had a +55 run differential over 44 games.
— Storey Clayton (@StoreyClayton) September 30, 2024
Over a full season, that projects to:
100-62 record
110-52 Pythagorean
Only offseason moves needed by the Mariners:
Extend Dan & Edgar, bring back same team.#TridentsUp
Atlanta's baseball team was 1st in OPS in 2023 and 2nd in 2022. In 2024, they were absolutely crushed by injuries. In 2021, they won the World Series.
— Storey Clayton (@StoreyClayton) November 26, 2024
This is a good day to be a Mariners fan!https://t.co/NidlanDlN9
Now look, I’m not saying that I predicted that Jorge Polanco would turn into the second coming of Ken Griffey Jr. or that Ben Williamson would get called up and be the next Ichiro (though I did predict he’d be the next major call-up, but I digress). The point is that those things are apparently much more likely when you surround the players with folks who know how to hit and, more importantly, how to teach hitting.
In short, coaching matters. Who knew?
Don’t believe me? Yes, the Mariners aren’t yet .618 this season. But they are atop the AL West and suddenly have a +14 run differential (coincidentally equal to last night’s run differential!). In 5 straight series wins plus a chance to take a sixth tonight, they’ve gone 12-5, scored 99 runs (5.82/game), given up just 69 (+1.76/game). In total this year, they’ve smashed 40 home runs, good for third in the Majors behind the Yankees and Dodgers (last year’s World Series matchup, as you may recall). The Yankees have 41 and Dodgers 43, so it’s possible your Seattle Mariners, who play in T-Mobile Park (#30 for hitters) will lead MLB in homers at some point this year.
Coaching matters!
Don’t believe me? Let’s check in on how Atlanta is doing without Kevin Seitzer. A team with one of the most touted potent offenses in the Majors is 12-14, has a run differential of -5, has scored 23 runs fewer than the Mariners, and has just 35 home runs, good for 8th in baseball. It’s not atrocious, but it’s a pale shadow of where they were in 2023 with Seitzer calling the shots. The team OPS (.717) badly lags the Mariners (.741).
It’s pretty hard to comprehend the transformation of the Mariner offense. It’s Dan, Edgar, and Seitz. To the extent that anyone new to the roster from outside in 2025 is contributing… well, they’re not. Obviously Donovan Solano has made quite a mess, getting just his 4th hit yesterday in 40 tries yesterday shortly before the Marlins called on a position player to throw 65 for the last 2 innings. He has a .219 OPS, unbelievably bad. Rowdy Tellez (.684 OPS) has worked his way to almost respectable, but he’s still dragging down the averages. Turns out that running it back was the right call after all (or at least it seems so so far). And this is after injuries to our two speediest hitters who were both off to strong starts, Robles and Bliss.
And that will be the real test of this suddenly prodigious offense. Can it sustain injuries not just among its own ranks, but among the vaunted pitching rotation? Kirby is still 6 weeks away and despite the immense relief that Gilbert may only be out for 2-4 weeks instead of the whole season or so (though there are skeptics out there who still think he’s on the road to Tommy John), steering the good ship Mariner without two of our 4-5 aces (let’s be honest, Bryce hasn’t been putting up ace numbers so far this year) for the better part of a month is daunting stuff. Logan Evans gets the nod for his MLB debut today and if he can pitch anything like our last few MLB debuts among rated prospect starters, we’ll be just fine. Emerson Hancock has remember that he was once a rated prospect starter, after all.
It’s a good day to be a Mariner fan, no matter how bad it was 24 hours ago after Gold Glover Dylan Moore made his 3rd error of the young season (finished with 5 total all last year!) en route to 6 unearned runs that were more than the difference in the ballgame – on the heels of Gilbert’s ominous injury departure.
Baseball is like life in high relief, the ups and downs of daily existence magnified to huge swings and drama. Turns out one of the best things you can do in either instance is to get some good help, advice, and guidance. In a word, coaching. I hear it matters.
Mariners Stats:
Comeback Wins: 7
Wire-to-Wire Wins: 8
Comeback Losses: 6
Wire-to-Wire Losses: 6
Multi-Homer Games: 7-5
Single-Homer Games: 7-3
No-Homer Games: 1-4
One-Run Games: 5-3
Extra-Innings Games: 2-2
Shutouts: 1-1
Record When Scoring >5 Runs: 7-2
Record When Scoring 2-5 Runs: 8-5
Record When Scoring <2 Runs: 0-5
Personal Stats:
Watched on TV: 2-6
Listened on Radio: 6-1
Mixed TV/Radio: 6-4
Followed on Gameday: 1-1
Superstition update: At this point, there’s a good argument for me restricting myself to the radio for the rest of the season. Maybe I could take up a fundraising pool from Mariner fandom to leave my TV off the rest of the year?
