Forecasting the Playoff

I received 19 prediction brackets for the National Park Playoff before voting began this morning. This was short of the prize threshold, but bragging rights are certainly on the line to follow in the footsteps of American City Bracket champion Kurt Falk (Kurt declined to submit an NPP bracket).

Here’s some statistics on who the predictors think will go the farthest in the NPP:

Championship Predictions
Six people selected the Grand Canyon to win it all, four chose Yellowstone, and three Yosemite. One each selected Great Smoky Mountains, Olympic, Rocky Mountain, Zion, Hawaii Volcanoes, and Craters of the Moon. By seeding, this is 14 picks for a #1 seed, two for a #2, and one each for a #3, #7, and #12. By region, this is 8 picks for the Southwest, 5 each for the Pacific and the North, and just 1 for the East.


Pacific Predictions
#1 Yosemite is expected to dominate the Pacific, with 13 selections to reach the Final Four. Most of the upset choices center on a potential second-round matchup between #2 Olympic and #7 Hawaii Volcanoes – two prognosticators each chose these parks to win the region. Remaining upset picks went to #3 Joshua Tree and #6 Sequoia (one apiece).


Southwest Predictions
The consensus strongest bracket is led by #1 Grand Canyon, regional winner in 12 predictive forecasts. #3 Zion is the most popular upset pick, with three selections. Four more parks each got a vote to cut down the nets: #2 Rocky Mountain, #5 Arches, #6 Capitol Reef, and #11 Mesa Verde. Despite the success of nearby Tucson in the American City Bracket, the furthest anyone picked #7 Saguaro to progress is the Elite Eight.


North Predictions
Once again, the top seed dominated predictions in this region as well, with #1 Yellowstone garnering 13 votes to reach the Final Four. Neighboring #2 Grand Teton was next up with two picks. One choice each went to #3 Glacier, #9 Denali, #10 Devils Tower, and #12 Craters of the Moon.


East Predictions
The East looks to be by far the most wide-open bracket, with no consensus and an apparently weak top seed. Top honors among the forecasters are split between #4 Acadia and #15 Virgin Islands, each of whom earned four selections. #10 Everglades is next with three picks. #1 Great Smoky Mountains earned two selections, alongside two of the least “parky” competitors, #2 Lincoln Memorial and #3 Statue of Liberty. Rounding out this scattered plot of predictions are #9 Shenandoah and #11 Mammoth Cave, each earning one pick.

Follow all the action here on this page, where we’ll continue to post periodic previews and daily recaps, and vote daily on Twitter!