{"id":4364,"date":"2025-04-06T12:04:48","date_gmt":"2025-04-06T16:04:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/?p=4364"},"modified":"2025-04-06T12:04:49","modified_gmt":"2025-04-06T16:04:49","slug":"san-francisco-4-seattle-1-3-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/4364","title":{"rendered":"San Francisco 4, Seattle 1 (3-6)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>This is supposed to be the Fun Differential era. But this is no fun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I caught a fair bit of heat &#8211; and also got a lot of credit (498 likes to date against 80 comments, most of them vitriolically negative) &#8211; for this <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/StoreyClayton\/status\/1840763624689701188\">Twitter (X by Musk) post<\/a> in which I credited Dan Wilson and Edgar Martinez with turning the Mariners around in 2024, almost making the playoffs, and winning 62% of the time (21-13) with what was purported to be a dead roster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now I&#8217;m wondering if that wasn&#8217;t the X (ha) factor after all. I think it might have been the veteran leadership of one Justin Matthew Turner. Just 4 years my junior, Turner joined the club when the M&#8217;s were 56-52 (.519) on the year (admittedly, still in first place in a week division, tied for first with eventual AL West winner Houston). During his tenure in Seattle, the Mariners would go 29-25 (.537), a time that overlapped both all of the Wilson\/Martinez success and the lead-up to that time that precipitated Scott Servais&#8217;s firing (especially the abysmal road-trip in which <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/StoreyClayton\/status\/1830383262436597929\">we saw Servais&#8217;s last win<\/a>). This isn&#8217;t as definitive, of course. Statistically, Wilson &amp; Martinez have a lot more success than JT in these small samples.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But that was before the first 9 games of 2025. The Mariners infamously refused to spend loose couch cushion change and a bag of chips on bringing back JT, preferring to sign Pirates cast-away Rowdy Tellez to a minor league deal to earn a starting first base spot with a torrid Spring Training. JT signed with the Cubs for $6 million (I can&#8217;t sufficiently stress that this is literally nothing in today&#8217;s MLB). JT is 3\/11 (.273) in limited action with the Cubs, who are 7-4 and sit atop their division. Tellez is 1\/12 (.081) for the Mariners, who are 3-6 and sit at the bottom of their division. His OPS+ is -12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Obviously the difference between JT and Tellez on the field isn&#8217;t worth 4 wins for the Cubs. But you don&#8217;t sign Justin Turner at 40 for his on-field contributions. You sign him for what he does on the bench, in the batting cage, in the clubhouse. Veteran leadership. It&#8217;s a thing that the Mariners lack. JP Crawford and Cal Raleigh can both lay claim to a pseudo-captain status of this squad and both are south of 31 years old. It&#8217;s a young team, which makes it long on potential, but there&#8217;s no one with seniority and sage wisdom (outside of Wilson &amp; Martinez themselves) to right the ship when it starts to take on water as it has so far this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I would be less certain of my diagnosis for the 2025 Mariners if there weren&#8217;t a prior case study to 2024. This one is way more dramatic and obvious: Carlos &#8220;Slamtana&#8221; Santana. (No, not <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Carlos_Santana\">this guy<\/a>.) The 2022 Mariners were 34-41 (.453) and in 4th place when Slamtana joined the club in late June. North America&#8217;s longest major-sport playoff drought (by an order of magnitude) was in no danger of ending. With Carlos aboard, the M&#8217;s rattled off a 56-31 run (.644), including an epic 14-game winning streak going into the All-Star break, to end the drought and finally make the playoffs. Slamtana was instrumental in the clinching game of the <a href=\"https:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/4121\">Mariners&#8217; first playoff series win in two decades<\/a> as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We let the Pirates jump on getting Santana the next year for cheap and he helped them to a hot start, but they eventually traded him to Milwaukee where he again made the playoffs. He spent the following year in Minnesota and won a Gold Glove! But this year, despite buzz that the Mariners would bring him back for a vacancy at first base (especially if they didn&#8217;t re-sign Turner), he returned to Cleveland for $12 million (double JT, but JT hadn&#8217;t just won a Gold Glove and Slamtana turns just 39 on Tuesday). Again, this was an affordable price for the Mariners. Carlos has opened 2025 9\/31 (.290) with a homer and 6 runs scored for the Guardians, though they are just 3-5 in the early going. Because they have the luxury of playing in the AL Central, they&#8217;re just a game out of first with that record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Game9-Vets.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"276\" src=\"https:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Game9-Vets.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-4365\" srcset=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Game9-Vets.png 700w, http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Game9-Vets-300x118.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Ah, the good old days&#8230;<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m talking about all this because it&#8217;s way more important than the game, which was painful and futile in the way that only a floundering foundering team can produce. The Mariners lead the AL in walks, demonstrating a real tangible improvement in plate discipline and hitting approach that is commendable and truly exciting. But they are next-to-last in runs\/game (3.11), somehow well ahead of 3-5 Houston (2.25), who is also In Trouble. And the runs thing indicates that this is, at core, the Same Old Mariners in a fundamental way. A team that struggles to put together timely hits and a sense of momentum. And when they haven&#8217;t struggled, it&#8217;s usually been with the help of a veteran leader who has won something before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hey, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.baseball-reference.com\/players\/m\/martijd02.shtml\">JD Martinez<\/a> is still available. We always did well when we had two Martinezes in Seattle. And this one could go on road trips too!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Mariners Stats:<\/em><br>Comeback Wins: 2<br>Wire-to-Wire Wins: 1<br>Comeback Losses: 2<br>Wire-to-Wire Losses: 4<br><br>Multi-Homer Games: 1-2<br>Single-Homer Games: 2-1<br>No-Homer Games: 0-3<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One-Run Games: 2-1<br>Extra-Innings Games: 0-1<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Record When Scoring >4 Runs: 0-2<br>Record When Scoring 2-4 Runs: 3-1<br>Record When Scoring &lt;2 Runs: 0-3<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Personal Stats:<\/em><br>Watched on TV: 1-5<br>Mixed TV\/Radio: 2-1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This is supposed to be the Fun Differential era. But this is no fun. I caught a fair bit of heat &#8211; and also got a lot of credit (498 likes to date against 80 comments, most of them vitriolically negative) &#8211; for this Twitter (X by Musk) post in which I credited Dan Wilson [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":4365,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[97,48,10],"tags":[96,5,54],"class_list":["post-4364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2025-mariner-recaps","category-a-day-in-the-life","category-lets-go-ms","tag-2025-mariner-recaps","tag-a-day-in-the-life","tag-lets-go-ms"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4364"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4364\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4366,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4364\/revisions\/4366"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}