{"id":3090,"date":"2015-04-05T08:38:49","date_gmt":"2015-04-05T13:38:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/?p=3090"},"modified":"2015-04-05T08:38:49","modified_gmt":"2015-04-05T13:38:49","slug":"unemployment-back-over-11-5-reporting-gap-ties-record","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/3090","title":{"rendered":"Unemployment Back Over 11.5%, Reporting Gap Ties Record"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Usually these days, when the media reports &#8220;unemployment was flat, but job growth was sluggish,&#8221; you all know how to translate that by now.  It means that unemployment actually ticked up through people leaving the labor force, but the BLS has ways of carefully ensuring that&#8217;s invisible to the public.  It&#8217;s just like their repeated phrase in the monthly unemployment report that &#8220;labor force participation has been in a narrow range of 62.7% to 62.9%,&#8221; not realizing that the difference between a tenth of a percent in that number is worth 0.15% in the actual unemployment figure.<\/p>\n<p>Actual unemployment ticked up in March, to 11.56%, the highest figure in three months.  The Reporting Gap, measuring the distance between the published headline figure and the actual figure that accounts for labor force departure, jumped to 6.06%, matching its all-time high, also reached in December of last year.  The Gap is now 110% of reported unemployment, also an all-time high.<\/p>\n<p>Here are your graphs:<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3091\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3091\" style=\"width: 525px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/March15Unemp.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/March15Unemp.png\" alt=\"Actual (red) and reported (blue) unemployment, January 2009-March 2015.\" width=\"525\" height=\"290\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3091\" srcset=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/March15Unemp.png 525w, http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/March15Unemp-300x165.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3091\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Actual (red) and reported (blue) unemployment, January 2009-March 2015.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3092\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3092\" style=\"width: 525px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/March15RepGap.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/March15RepGap.png\" alt=\"Reporting gap between actual and reported unemployment, January 2009-March 2015.\" width=\"525\" height=\"289\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3092\" srcset=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/March15RepGap.png 525w, http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/March15RepGap-300x165.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3092\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Reporting gap between actual and reported unemployment, January 2009-March 2015.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>With labor force participation rates near a 40-year low, there is no real reason to believe unemployment will be under 11% anytime soon.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><i>This is part of a continuing series on the under-reporting of unemployment in the United States of America.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Past posts<\/b> (months indicate the month being analyzed &#8211; the post is in the month following):<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/3033\">February 2015<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2950\">December 2014 &#8211; labor force participation assessment<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2937\">December 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2846\">November 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2775\">October 2014 &#8211; age assessment<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2771\">October 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2704\">September 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2615\">August 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2479\">April 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2469\">December 2013 &#8211; seasonal assessment<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2461\">December 2013<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2386\">March 2013*<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2319\">August 2012*<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2308\">July 2012* &#8211; age assessment<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2298\">July 2012*<\/a><\/p>\n<p>*My initial analyses led to a slight over-reporting of the impact of the reporting gap, so the assessments in these posts are inflated, as explained and corrected in the December 2013 analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Usually these days, when the media reports &#8220;unemployment was flat, but job growth was sluggish,&#8221; you all know how to translate that by now. It means that unemployment actually ticked up through people leaving the labor force, but the BLS has ways of carefully ensuring that&#8217;s invisible to the public. It&#8217;s just like their repeated [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,41],"tags":[5,76],"class_list":["post-3090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-a-day-in-the-life","category-its-the-stupid-economy","tag-a-day-in-the-life","tag-its-the-stupid-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3090","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3090"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3090\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3093,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3090\/revisions\/3093"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3090"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3090"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3090"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}