{"id":3033,"date":"2015-03-08T11:29:03","date_gmt":"2015-03-08T16:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/?p=3033"},"modified":"2015-03-08T11:29:03","modified_gmt":"2015-03-08T16:29:03","slug":"unemployment-actually-down-still-above-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/3033","title":{"rendered":"Unemployment Actually Down, Still Above 11%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Unemployment declined in February 2015 for the second straight month, to 11.42%.  This is the lowest unemployment has been in the US since June 2009, when unemployment was 11.26%.<\/p>\n<p>The Reporting Gap, which indicates how under-reported the official BLS figure is when failing to account for departures from the labor force, crept up to 5.92%, the third-highest rate to date. This puts the gap at nearly 108% of the reported figure, demonstrating that the BLS is ignoring 52% of those who are actually unemployed.<\/p>\n<p>Unemployment in the US has been above 11% for 70 consecutive months.  It has been above 10%, the highest reported figured by BLS during the Great Recession, for 72 consecutive months (six full years).<\/p>\n<p>Here are your charts:<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3034\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3034\" style=\"width: 525px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/UnempFeb15.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/UnempFeb15.jpg\" alt=\"US actual (red) and report (blue) unemployment rate, 2009-2015\" width=\"525\" height=\"291\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3034\" srcset=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/UnempFeb15.jpg 525w, http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/UnempFeb15-300x166.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3034\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">US actual (red) and report (blue) unemployment rate, 2009-2015<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3035\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3035\" style=\"width: 525px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/RepGapFeb15.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/RepGapFeb15.jpg\" alt=\"US &quot;reporting gap&quot; between actual and reported unemployment, 2009-2015\" width=\"525\" height=\"294\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3035\" srcset=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/RepGapFeb15.jpg 525w, http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/03\/RepGapFeb15-300x168.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3035\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">US &#8220;reporting gap&#8221; between actual and reported unemployment, 2009-2015<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Unemployment in February was down 0.05% from January&#8217;s 11.47% and down sharply (0.24%) from December&#8217;s 11.66%.  These are the most substantial improvements that have been demonstrated since late 2013, when unemployment fell below its spike in October 2013 to over 13%.  Current trends seem to indicate that no one is re-entering the labor force, but those who have remained in the labor force are actually finding jobs at a slightly steadier pace at the outset of 2015.  If these trends of improvement continue, unemployment may actually be below 10% by the end of 2016.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<p><i>This is part of a continuing series on the under-reporting of unemployment in the United States of America.<\/i><\/p>\n<p><b>Past posts<\/b> (months indicate the month being analyzed &#8211; the post is in the month following):<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2950\">December 2014 &#8211; labor force participation assessment<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2937\">December 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2846\">November 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2775\">October 2014 &#8211; age assessment<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2771\">October 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2704\">September 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2615\">August 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2479\">April 2014<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2469\">December 2013 &#8211; seasonal assessment<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2461\">December 2013<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2386\">March 2013*<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2319\">August 2012*<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2308\">July 2012* &#8211; age assessment<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/2298\">July 2012*<\/a><\/p>\n<p>*My initial analyses led to a slight over-reporting of the impact of the reporting gap, so the assessments in these posts are inflated, as explained and corrected in the December 2013 analysis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Unemployment declined in February 2015 for the second straight month, to 11.42%. This is the lowest unemployment has been in the US since June 2009, when unemployment was 11.26%. The Reporting Gap, which indicates how under-reported the official BLS figure is when failing to account for departures from the labor force, crept up to 5.92%, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,41],"tags":[5,76],"class_list":["post-3033","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-a-day-in-the-life","category-its-the-stupid-economy","tag-a-day-in-the-life","tag-its-the-stupid-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3033","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3033"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3033\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3036,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3033\/revisions\/3036"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3033"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3033"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3033"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}