{"id":106,"date":"2008-01-07T07:29:38","date_gmt":"2008-01-07T15:29:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/106"},"modified":"2008-01-07T07:29:38","modified_gmt":"2008-01-07T15:29:38","slug":"its-good-to-be-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/archives\/106","title":{"rendered":"It&#8217;s Good to Be Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>And now I&#8217;m back.  From outer space.  If by &#8220;outer space,&#8221; I mean &#8220;a cabin in the woods with the Garin Clan.&#8221;  And I do.<\/p>\n<p>As far as Iowa goes, Henry Clay once said &#8220;I&#8217;d rather be right than President.&#8221;  (Incidentally, the second quotes-Google search for this sentence brings up someone posting the coveted Feingold-Kucinich result on <a href=\"\/2008\">my Presidential quiz<\/a>.)  My phrase would be something more like &#8220;I&#8217;d rather be wrong than clairvoyant.&#8221;  Which may seem to undermine the whole process of making predictions, but perhaps it&#8217;s part of the preparation principle.<\/p>\n<p>The preparation principle is pretty basic and possibly almost universally held as a belief structure among people.  It&#8217;s approximately <i>If one is prepared for something, it won&#8217;t happen.<\/i>  Now most people might tack on a &#8220;bad&#8221; to this.  As in &#8220;if one is prepared for something <i>bad<\/i>&#8230;&#8221;  These people are optimists.  In general, I think that the universe sees preparation as an exercise in prevention and thus works swiftly to prevent the prepared-for.  Sometimes.  In some ways.  I don&#8217;t want e-mails talking about how someone brushed their teeth or combed their hair this morning and then still had a meeting or went to work.<\/p>\n<p>The point is, I was really really wrong about Hillary Clinton.  And this makes me really really happy.  So bring on the saucy remarks about how I jumped the gun and spoke too soon&#8230; I&#8217;m happier than you are.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, if you flip Ron Paul &#038; Rudy Giuliani and give Huckabee a much bigger bump, I was pretty close on the Republican side.  Not that this is where I&#8217;m putting any hope or much interest.  And if Huckabee gets anointed, it&#8217;s going to be awfully hard for him to win, methinks.  Although Obama v. Huckabee might be some kind of bizarre dogfight.  I don&#8217;t anticipate a ton of turnout there.<\/p>\n<p>But fortunately, my anticipations tend to be wrong.  And while everything I can see leads me to believe that Obama is only fractionally better than Clinton or Huckabee, fractionally better is about fifty times more significant an improvement than I&#8217;ve seen from a mainline Presidential candidate since&#8230; Mondale?  Really in my lifetime, functionally, since I didn&#8217;t start following Presidential elections till 1988, and Dukakis really seemed a buffoon.  So that&#8217;s pretty exciting, all around.  It would be a lot more exciting if he hadn&#8217;t equivocated on the idea of a full pullout of troops in Iraq by 2013, but at least he didn&#8217;t vote for the war in the first place (yes, I realize this is a technicality &#8211; he wasn&#8217;t in the Senate at the time).<\/p>\n<p>Back to work now, and much more later.  Today seems awfully surreal already and on the way toward the swirlier.  The year already feels very old.  Maybe that&#8217;s why I shaved today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>And now I&#8217;m back. From outer space. If by &#8220;outer space,&#8221; I mean &#8220;a cabin in the woods with the Garin Clan.&#8221; And I do. As far as Iowa goes, Henry Clay once said &#8220;I&#8217;d rather be right than President.&#8221; (Incidentally, the second quotes-Google search for this sentence brings up someone posting the coveted Feingold-Kucinich [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,16,17],"tags":[5,59,60],"class_list":["post-106","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-a-day-in-the-life","category-politics-n-a-strife-of-interests-masquerading","category-quick-updates","tag-a-day-in-the-life","tag-politics-n-a-strife-of-interests-masquerading","tag-quick-updates"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/bluepyramid.org\/storey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}