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Republican Primaries 2008: What if the Delegates Were All Assigned Proportionally?

As Americans, we love to tout our democracy as a bastion of letting the people decide. But is it really the people who decide? Or do arcane rules and backroom decisions really determine our choices and, ultimately, our presidents?

Certainly our initial ("viable") choices of who to vote for in any given cycle are pretty limited. But do the rules that govern how we narrow those choices themselves skew the process?

This is what I was hoping to investigate when undertaking the process of calculating what would have happened in this year's Republican race had all the delegates been assigned proportionally from each primary or caucus. I actually initially assumed someone had already crunched these numbers, but an exhaustive Google search proved fruitless. If you want political hypotheses explored, you have to do it yourself...

Actually, you won't have to do it yourself, because it's below. I didn't include the percentages, but they are based on the wonderfully extensive page at Wikipedia. Thanks to everyone who's helped compile that, because it made this project much easier. I should also note that this is not as perfectly scientific as it could be, because I had to round numbers here and there, but it should be within a delegate or two of perfect proportionality for all candidates.

Away we go...

IOWA Actual Proportional Difference
MHuckabee 17 13 -4
MRomney 12 9 -3
FThompson 3 5 2
JMcCain 3 5 2
RPaul 2 4 2
RGiuliani 0 1 1


Running Total Actual Proportional Difference
MHuckabee 17 13 -4
MRomney 12 9 -3
FThompson 3 5 2
JMcCain 3 5 2
RPaul 2 4 2
RGiuliani 0 1 1


So far, no major changes in the order. Huckabee was a big surprise in Iowa, and the story probably isn't really about the delegate count at this stage in the game anyway.
WYOMING Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 8 8 0
FThompson 3 3 0
DHunter 1 1 0


Running Total Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 20 17 -3
MHuckabee 17 13 -4
FThompson 6 8 2
JMcCain 3 5 2
RPaul 2 4 2
RGiuliani 0 1 1
DHunter 1 1 0


Was anyone even paying attention in Wyoming? And look, Wyoming was perfectly proportional already! No changes.
NH Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 7 5 -2
MRomney 4 4 0
MHuckabee 1 1 0
RGiuliani 0 1 1
RPaul 0 1 1


Running Total Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 24 21 -3
MHuckabee 18 14 -4
JMcCain 10 10 0
FThompson 6 8 2
RPaul 2 5 3
RGiuliani 0 2 2
DHunter 1 1 0


Again, a partial proportionality is already in play. So far in our standings, front-runners Romney & Huckabee are losing a little ground to the bottom-feeders. Maybe Fred Thompson looks slightly more viable, but the big story is still that McCain won New Hampshire.
MICHIGAN Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 24 12 -12
JMcCain 5 9 4
MHuckabee 1 5 4
RPaul 0 2 2
FThompson 0 1 1
RGiuliani 0 1 1


Running Total Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 48 33 -15
JMcCain 15 19 4
MHuckabee 19 19 0
FThompson 6 9 3
RPaul 2 7 5
RGiuliani 0 3 3
DHunter 1 1 0


The big story is still favorite son Romney taking his home state, but it looks a lot less resounding from proportional assignment. McCain catches Huckabee for the first time if he gets a proportional share of Michigan delegates.
NEVADA Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 18 16 -2
RPaul 4 4 0
JMcCain 4 4 0
MHuckabee 2 3 1
FThompson 2 2 0
RGiuliani 1 1 0
DHunter 0 1 1


SC Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 19 8 -11
MHuckabee 5 7 2
FThompson 0 4 4
MRomney 0 4 4
RPaul 0 1 1


Running Total Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 66 53 -13
JMcCain 38 31 -7
MHuckabee 26 29 3
FThompson 8 15 7
RPaul 6 12 6
RGiuliani 1 4 3
DHunter 1 2 1


The first two-vote day on the Republican calendar was, in real life, seen as a resounding death-knell to the Huckabee campaign. Not only was the historic weight of South Carolina crowning McCain, but Huckabee couldn't hold a Southern state. But does this story look the same with a razor thin 8-7 delegate win for McCain as opposed to the 19-5 win he actually received? And does Fred Thompson immediately drop out of the race with this steady pick-up of delegates? Already our story is starting to diverge, but let's assume that Fred still drops out since he didn't get his top two finish in South Carolina. So we can keep using actual '08 vote totals...
FLORIDA Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 57 21 -36
MRomney 0 18 18
RGiuliani 0 8 8
MHuckabee 0 8 8
RPaul 0 2 2


Running Total Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 66 71 5
JMcCain 95 52 -43
MHuckabee 26 37 11
FThompson 8 15 7
RPaul 6 14 8
RGiuliani 1 12 11
DHunter 1 2 1


Florida being winner-take-all may be the turning point in the whole primary season. Look at those differentials! Yes, McCain still picks up momentum and a win, but this is looking a lot more like the see-saw battle the Democrats are having. Florida was billed as a huge turning point heading into Super Tuesday, and right now the delegate count actually swings from a 29-delegate McCain lead to a 19-delegate Romney lead! Giuliani probably still gets out, although with this kind of a mix, it's not as clear. And who does he endorse? If he exits, he probably sits on the fence and courts endorsements. Or maybe he hangs around for Super Tuesday anyway. But let's assume he still gets out and endorses McCain, just like he did...
MAINE Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 18 10 -8
JMcCain 0 4 4
RPaul 0 3 3
MHuckabee 0 1 1


Running Total Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 84 81 -3
JMcCain 95 56 -39
MHuckabee 26 38 12
RPaul 6 17 11
FThompson 8 15 7
RGiuliani 1 12 11
DHunter 1 2 1


Maine is an afterthought in Romney's New England territory. And proportionality actually diminishes his win here. But keep in mind that, going into Super Tuesday, the top of the delegate boards is Romney by 25 instead of McCain by 11. There's no telling how much that fact alone could've altered the race, especially with Romney here breaking McCain's winning streak. But again, we have to assume that exactly the voting that did happen happened. So, Super Tuesday...?
ALABAMA Actual Proportional Difference
MHuckabee 20 15 -5
JMcCain 16 13 -3
MRomney 0 7 7
RPaul 0 1 1


ALASKA Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 12 12 0
MHuckabee 6 6 0
RPaul 5 4 -1
JMcCain 3 4 1


ARIZONA Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 50 25 -25
MRomney 0 17 17
MHuckabee 0 5 5
RPaul 0 2 2
RGiuliani 0 1 1


ARKANSAS Actual Proportional Difference
MHuckabee 29 19 -10
JMcCain 1 6 5
MRomney 1 4 3
RPaul 0 2 2


CALIFORNIA Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 158 76 -82
MRomney 12 58 46
MHuckabee 0 20 20
RGiuliani 0 9 9
RPaul 0 7 7


COLORADO Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 22 13 -9
JMcCain 0 4 4
MHuckabee 0 3 3
RPaul 0 2 2


CONN Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 27 15 -12
MRomney 0 9 9
MHuckabee 0 2 2
RPaul 0 1 1


DELAWARE Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 18 8 -10
MRomney 0 6 6
MHuckabee 0 3 3
RPaul 0 1 1


GEORGIA Actual Proportional Difference
MHuckabee 54 25 -29
JMcCain 9 23 14
MRomney 9 22 13
RPaul 0 2 2


ILLINOIS Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 54 28 -26
MRomney 3 16 13
MHuckabee 0 9 9
RPaul 0 3 3
RGiuliani 0 1 1


MASS Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 22 21 -1
JMcCain 18 16 -2
MHuckabee 0 2 2
RPaul 0 1 1


MINNESOTA Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 38 15 -23
JMcCain 0 9 9
MHuckabee 0 8 8
RPaul 0 6 6


MISSOURI Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 58 20 -38
MHuckabee 0 18 18
MRomney 0 17 17
RPaul 0 3 3


MONTANA Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 25 10 -15
RPaul 0 6 6
JMcCain 0 5 5
MHuckabee 0 4 4


NJ Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 52 29 -23
MRomney 0 15 15
MHuckabee 0 4 4
RPaul 0 3 3
RGiuliani 0 1 1


NY Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 87 45 -42
MRomney 0 24 24
MHuckabee 0 9 9
RPaul 0 6 6
RGiuliani 0 3 3


ND Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 9 9 0
JMcCain 6 6 0
RPaul 6 6 0
MHuckabee 5 5 0


OKLAHOMA Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 32 15 -17
MHuckabee 6 13 7
MRomney 0 9 9
RPaul 0 1 1


TENNESSEE Actual Proportional Difference
MHuckabee 25 19 -6
JMcCain 19 17 -2
MRomney 8 12 4
RPaul 0 3 3
FThompson 0 1 1


UTAH Actual Proportional Difference
MRomney 36 33 -3
JMcCain 0 2 2
RPaul 0 1 1


WV Actual Proportional Difference
MHuckabee 18 10 -8
MRomney 0 8 8


SUPER TUE Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 608 366 -242
MRomney 197 337 140
MHuckabee 163 199 36
RPaul 11 61 50
RGiuliani 0 15 15
FThompson 0 1 1


Running Total Actual Proportional Difference
JMcCain 703 422 -281
MRomney 281 418 137
MHuckabee 189 237 48
RPaul 17 78 61
RGiuliani 1 27 26
FThompson 8 16 8
DHunter 1 2 1


And there you have it. An absolutely mind-blowing 418-delegate swing in the gap between Romney and McCain, based purely and solely on calculating delegates proportionally from the exact same vote tallies. Leaving an incalculably close 4-delegate margin in the wake of the deluge of Super Tuesday, making things impossibly too close to call. Suddenly, the Republican race exactly mirrors the Obama-Clinton struggle on the other side. And we all know how much Huckabee likes to stick around, and he has 25% more reason to do so. Even the Ron Paul Revolution is making enough noise in the delegate count that it could matter by the time the Convention rolls around.

The entire reason that John McCain has been the presumptive nominee for weeks instead of being in a heated struggle for his political life with Mitt Romney is the basic rule of how to count the exact same votes.

Though we have additional primary and caucus results since, it's obvious that Romney would stay in the race and things would look very different indeed. So using votes without his ballot presence do little to fulfill this simulation after Super Tuesday.

Much of the talk this year has been about the role of superdelegates on the Democratic side and whether the party elders will interfere with democracy. But democracy itself depends on who is making the rules and how one is defining how a vote gets counted. Obviously our current system is a mix of all sorts of arcane rules and traditions, including the much-maligned electoral college (which functions much like a winner-take-all primary).

Something to consider next time you're feeling certain that only in America can the voice of the voter truly prevail...

-Storey Clayton, 20 February 2008, Berkeley, California
Blue Pyramid Politics:
The 2008 Presidential Ticket Quiz, a political quiz | Duck and Cover, a political cartoon
StoreyTelling, an often political blog | One Million Blogs for Peace, a political movement